Key watershed:

North America - Wolfspeed's financial and expansion imbalances have weakened its "first mover" advantage in materials.

Europe - IDM's strength lies in automotive packaging/validation, continuously increasing downstream market share.

China - In the entire chain of substrate, epitaxy, and device manufacturing, "intensive board filling" will be implemented, and 8-inch production capacity will be concentrated in 2025-2026.

conclusion

The global pattern of manufacturers has evolved from a "US European duopoly" to a "US European, Chinese triple pole"; China's scale and cost efficiency in the material sector are rewriting the starting line of competition.

200 mm/8 inches is the new stage of "entry threshold", whoever achieves high yield mass production first will have cost suppression power.

The domestic substitution is showing a chain breakthrough of "material first, device follow-up, and system verification synchronization", and it is expected to occupy a watershed in the market of 1200 V breakthrough in vehicle specifications around 2026.

If high debt and high investment manufacturers are unable to verify their commercial closed loop on 8 "yield or downstream lock orders, they will face a high probability of being integrated or cleared.