The pattern of long-term energy storage technology is diverging, with flow batteries and compressed air energy storage becoming the main forces

  Diversified technological paths and cost competition determine market patterns

  The current new energy storage technologies are showing diversified development, and although lithium-ion batteries still dominate, their shortcomings in long-term energy storage scenarios are gradually emerging. Compressed air energy storage has an advantage with lower initial costs, while flow batteries have significant cost reduction potential through continuous technological breakthroughs. It is expected that by 2025, the initial investment cost of lithium-ion batteries will have decreased to 500 yuan/kWh, but with the increasing demand for energy storage of more than 4 hours, flow batteries and compressed air energy storage will dominate the new installed capacity after 2025.

  Long term layout of hydrogen energy storage, commercialization still needs breakthroughs

  Hydrogen energy storage is considered the ultimate goal of long-term energy storage due to its high energy density and suitability for seasonal peak shaving, but its energy conversion efficiency is only 40% and its technological maturity is insufficient. It is expected that hydrogen energy storage technology will gradually improve after 2030, and the commercialization process is expected to accelerate by 2035. In the short term, flow batteries and compressed air energy storage remain the core solutions for long-term energy storage.

  Dual driven by policies and demand, structural adjustment of energy storage installation capacity

After the cancellation of the mandatory allocation and storage policy, the installation capacity of new energy projects is under short-term pressure, but the problem of wind and solar power curtailment is forcing long-term growth in energy storage demand. It is expected that by 2030, the proportion of energy storage for more than 4 hours in mainland China will increase to 50%, and the market share of technology routes will depend on the speed of cost reduction and the progress of large-scale applications.

  Commercialization of flow batteries accelerates, with significant breakthroughs in vanadium and zinc bromide technologies

  Vanadium flow battery: mature supply chain, continuous cost decline

  The all vanadium flow battery, with its advantages of high safety and long cycle life, will have an installed capacity of 1.8 GWh in mainland China by 2024, an increase of nearly six times compared to 2023. The single Wh cost has been reduced to 2 yuan, and with the promotion of large-scale production and membrane localization, the cost is expected to further decrease in the future. At present, the supply chain of all vanadium flow batteries has begun to take shape, and the development capacity of 100 MW level projects has been formed, laying the foundation for large-scale applications.

  Zinc Bromine Liquid Flow Battery: Potential Application Verification Technology in High Cold Regions

  Zinc bromine flow batteries have been applied in high-altitude regions such as Xinjiang and Qinghai by solving technical problems such as zinc dendrite formation and self discharge. Its wide working temperature range and low initial investment cost advantages are prominent, and its cost competitiveness will become more significant after scaling up. Technological breakthroughs and scene adaptability have opened up differentiated market space for zinc bromine flow batteries.

  Industry chain opportunities focus on domestic substitution of key materials

  In the flow battery industry chain, the domestic substitution of vanadium flow battery separators has become a key breakthrough direction. Local enterprise technological breakthroughs will drive down the cost of separators and further unleash the commercialization potential of flow batteries. In addition, the optimization of material stability for zinc bromine flow batteries also provides new growth points for the industry.

  The iteration and adaptability improvement of new energy storage technologies are driving the industry towards long-term and high safety direction. The technological breakthrough of flow batteries and the cost advantage of compressed air energy storage will become the core variables for reshaping the energy storage market pattern in the next decade.