Electric vehicle sales slow down, short-term pressure, long-term outlook still optimistic

Yole pointed out that the growth momentum of the global electric vehicle market will significantly slow down in 2024, which has a significant impact on the short-term demand for SiC semiconductor devices and wafers. Multiple manufacturers have lowered their revenue expectations and adjusted their capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operating expenditure (OPEX) strategies, focusing on inventory control and capacity planning pace.

However, the report also emphasizes that the growth of high-voltage platform electric vehicles in the future will continue to drive the medium - to long-term development of SiC market demand. Especially for electric vehicles with 800V systems, their dependence on SiC is much higher than that of traditional 400V platforms, which will become an important engine driving the expansion of the SiC power device market.

It is predicted that by 2030, the automotive and mobile transportation sectors will contribute 71% of the SiC power device market share, firmly ranking as the top driving application.

SiC power modules reshape the electronic architecture of new energy vehicles

The key role of SiC in new energy vehicles is becoming increasingly prominent, especially in the drive system and power conversion links, where its advantages are significantly superior to traditional silicon devices

In the drive system, SiC power modules can significantly improve energy conversion efficiency, extend range, optimize power response, and significantly improve acceleration performance due to their low conduction loss and high-frequency switching capability;

In terms of heat dissipation, SiC devices can withstand higher operating temperatures, simplify the design of thermal management systems, and thereby reduce the cost and weight of the entire vehicle system;

In the on-board charging system (OBC) and DC-DC converter, SiC power modules improve power density and conversion efficiency, effectively shorten charging time, and provide more stable power output for low-voltage electrical systems.

Accelerated penetration of industrial and energy markets, promoting diversified applications

In addition to new energy vehicles, the application of SiC in multiple industrial and energy scenarios is also rapidly expanding:

In electric vehicle charging facilities, SiC modules can improve conversion efficiency and reduce system size;

In solar inverters and energy storage systems, SiC devices support higher frequency and lower loss energy conversion;

In terms of high-power data center power supply, SiC devices are showing a trend of substitution, and it is expected to create over $200 million in new market opportunities in the next five years.

Overall, Yole predicts that by 2030, SiC will occupy a combined market share of 28% in industries such as automotive, power, and energy storage.

Moving towards 8-inch wafers, IDM mode has become the mainstream trend

The manufacturing process of the SiC industry chain is undergoing structural upgrading. Yole stated that starting from 2024, mainstream SiC manufacturers worldwide are accelerating their transition to 8-inch wafer platforms and have made significant progress

Wolfspeed will achieve revenue from 8-inch wafers surpassing 6-inch wafers for the first time in the second half of 2024;

Several Chinese SiC companies are also accelerating the deployment of 8-inch production lines to alleviate capacity bottlenecks;

Mainstream device manufacturers are currently advancing the certification process, and actual mass production is expected to be driven in line with market demand.

Yole predicts that by 2028, SiC 8-inch wafers will dominate the mainstream production capacity. At the same time, the IDM model that integrates design, manufacturing, and packaging will also become the mainstream commercial form, especially suitable for automotive grade applications that require extremely high reliability.

Chinese manufacturers make rapid breakthroughs, with initial success in 300mm wafers

Yole specifically pointed out that Chinese SiC material and equipment manufacturers are catching up:

Enterprises including Tianke Heda, Tianyue Advanced, Shuoke Crystal, Tongguang Co., Ltd., Jingsheng Electromechanical, and Nansha Wafer have successfully developed 300mm SiC wafers;

This size is not intended for mass production on current device manufacturing platforms, but rather a forward-looking reserve for future new applications such as AR/VR glasses, microsystem modules, etc.

Although 8-inch wafers will still be the mainstream direction in the coming years, the successful development of 300mm will lay the foundation for SiC to expand into more high value-added scenarios.

Conclusion: Strategic period under structural optimization

Yole's prediction clarifies one direction: although the short-term slowdown in the electric vehicle market has brought some impact, the medium - to long-term growth logic of SiC remains unchanged.

Against the backdrop of continuously increasing penetration rate of automotive high-voltage platforms and synchronous expansion of industrial and energy storage markets, multiple variables such as IDM mode, 8-inch wafer platform, and breakthroughs in domestic materials will jointly drive SiC into a new stage.

For investors and technology decision-makers, focusing on the pace of capacity release, platform stability, and material cost reduction ability after the "supply-demand mismatch repair period" will be the key to judging future success.