Several industry insiders have stated in interviews with China Business News that the current substitution process of SiC for IGBT (Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor) has entered a critical stage. Domestic power semiconductor companies are occupying a more advantageous position in the global market with technological catch-up and cost advantages, while international giants may face the risk of market share erosion if they cannot accelerate their transformation pace. This trend of mutual growth and decline indicates that 2025 will become an important turning point that determines the future direction of the industry.
With the continuous decline in SiC prices, SiC is replacing IGBT comprehensively, and the performance of related enterprises at home and abroad is showing a situation of both ice and fire. International power semiconductor giants such as Wolfspeed were once leading companies in the SiC field, but due to overly aggressive expansion strategies and intensified market competition, they have fallen into serious financial difficulties. In 2025, Wolfspeed filed for bankruptcy protection due to debt crisis, and its 8-inch wafer fab capacity utilization rate was only 20% -25%, with market share being eroded by competitors. Companies such as Infineon and STMicroelectronics are also facing challenges. Although they still have a certain advantage in the high-end automotive grade SiC market, their profit margins have dropped below 20% due to the impact of low prices of domestic SiC products.
According to Yole's prediction, the global market size of silicon carbide power devices will reach 6.297 billion US dollars by 2027; TrendForce data shows that its compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2023 to 2028 is as high as 25%; Sullivan further predicts that the global silicon carbide substrate market size will grow to RMB 66.4 billion by 2030.
Yuan Shuai believes that in recent years, domestic enterprises have made significant progress in SiC technology research and production, continuously improving product quality and performance while gradually reducing costs. The huge market demand in China provides broad development space for domestic enterprises. By continuously meeting the needs of domestic customers, domestic enterprises can accumulate rich experience and enhance their competitiveness. At the same time, domestic enterprises are actively expanding their overseas markets, strengthening cooperation with international customers, and are expected to occupy a larger share in the global power semiconductor market, becoming an important force in the global power semiconductor industry.
Luklin stated that by 2028, SiC will account for 25% of power semiconductor shipments and 45% of the total value. Although silicon-based IGBTs will decrease to 55%, they will still have a high volume and low price chassis. Chinese manufacturers are expected to acquire 35% of the world's substrates, 50% of devices, and 70% of module production capacity, becoming the preferred "second supplier".
The opportunity lies in the collective production of the local 8-inch production line in 2026, which will further reduce costs by 30%; the three major incremental markets of energy storage, supercharging, and heavy-duty trucks will explode simultaneously, and the SiC consumption of a single heavy-duty truck will be four times that of passenger cars. ”Luklin believes that the challenges are equally sharp: it takes 6 months to improve the substrate yield by one point from 60% to 80%, and equipment, consumables, EDA, etc. face supply chain security risks; The carbon border tax and IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) subsidies in Europe and America have cut the supply chain into two parts, and export modules may face an additional 20% tariff. Whether the cost advantage can be transformed into standard discourse power is the lifeline for domestic SiC in the next three years. ”