The US market: installation expectations and price trends. The installation of energy storage in the US in the next two years has attracted much attention. In 2024, driven by policy competition, the installed capacity in the United States is expected to reach 70-80 GWh; However, by 2025, the installed capacity will fall back to around 40GWh, and by 2027, it is expected to increase by 20-30 GWh. In the third and fourth quarters, the phenomenon of rush to install was very obvious, and resources such as equipment and construction were in a tight situation. The tight supply of battery cells will continue until at least November, and the installation caliber will be based on mechanical completion, with less impact on queuing. The industry has also adopted a wait-and-see attitude towards the 3D bill, and current rules can be applied to projects shipped this year.

In terms of price, there has been a price increase for local production capacity equipment in North America, with cell prices rising from $80/Wh in 2023 to $100-110/Wh in 2024. However, export equipment prices from China have remained relatively stable, with some owners still experiencing price pressure. Here, the quotation refers to cell prices. Middle East market: Progress of major projects and installation growth rate. There are also many major projects being promoted in the Middle East market this year, such as Saudi Arabia, Dubai and other projects. Haichen's quotation for one of the projects is approximately $73/Wh (DDP), which is close to the domestic price. PCS has a relatively low market share in the Middle East, at around $10/Wh. Ningde Times' UAE project has experienced delays, with a high probability of installation in 2025. The overall installed capacity in the Middle East is relatively stable in 2024, and the growth rate is expected to increase in 2025, especially the long-term demand for photovoltaic energy storage in Saudi Arabia. European market: Demand expectations and market characteristics. The European market is expected to have an installed capacity of over 20GWh in 2024 and is expected to reach 40GWh in 2025. This growth is mainly due to the launch of large-scale projects in various countries and the need for reconstruction. Unlike the markets in the United States and the Middle East, the European market is more dispersed and opportunities are relatively balanced. From the perspective of FOB prices of energy storage systems in various regions, the FOB price of DC side systems in Europe is $65-75/Wh, while the price in the United States is $10 more expensive and 5% lower in Latin America. The exchange price of PCS in China is about $40/kW. In 2024, global prices will generally show an upward trend, and price changes will not be limited to the Middle East. There are multiple reasons for the rise in domestic energy storage prices. Projects such as Inner Mongolia have driven the emergence of high priced orders; The increase in lifecycle requirements leads to an increase in technology costs; The profit model of independent energy storage has been improved, and the premium ability of enterprises has also increased accordingly. Taking the Inner Mongolia project as an example, its revenue model includes spot trading (subsidy of 0.35 yuan/kWh), frequency regulation, capacity electricity pricing, etc. The charging and discharging times are flexible and there is no fixed time limit. However, the subsidy may decrease next year due to the high sharing pressure on the power generation side, and the quality of nodes will also affect the revenue. The price increase of battery cells and the pace of domestic installation. In the short term, the price increase of battery cells is due to rush installation and capacity switching, but in the long run, it will tend to stabilize. The performance of battery cells depends on production processes and integrated control, and the owner's designation of battery cells is gradually weakening. After the 520Ah technology switch, the focus of competition will shift towards system integration and services, rather than simply product advantages.

The overall pace of domestic installation is stable and upward, with various regions competing for node registration, but there is no specific time for rush installation. The setting of a target of 600GWh in 2027 provides strong support for the long-term demand of the domestic energy storage market. Overall, the global energy storage market has entered a period of high prosperity, and the tight supply and demand situation may continue until the second half of 2026. The increase in prices and optimization of business models have enhanced the profitability of enterprises. Multiple regions such as the United States, the Middle East, and Europe are experiencing resonance in demand, and domestic policies are also driving an increase in installed capacity. Core targets such as CATL and Sunac have reasonable valuations, but there is a possibility of performance improvement. However, investors also need to pay attention to catalysts such as quarterly data, price negotiations, and policy details, while being alert to the risks of partial subsidy reduction and overcapacity. In the wave of global energy transition, the future of the energy storage market is promising, but caution is also needed to address the challenges involved.